Recent developments in Bab al-Mandab have a direct impact on the security of Saudi Arabia, and Ansar Allah has become a leverage of pressure. The advance of Ansar Allah in important areas such as Al-Mokha and Meyyun indicates fundamental changes in regional equations that are not limited to the Yemen war.
Bab al-Mandab; A New Leverage in Security Equations
Bab al-Mandab, recognized as a vital route in global shipping, has now become a key and sensitive point in the relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States. With the continued movements of Ansar Allah in this region, despite maintaining the shipping route, dependence on new security and political considerations has turned this strait into a leverage in regional equations.
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In this context, the U.S. approach is particularly noteworthy. Washington, in response to Saudi Arabia's request for a direct attack on Ansar Allah, has limited itself to intelligence support and assistance in targeting operations while keeping communication channels open with this group. This approach may stem from calculations indicating that the military elimination of this group would incur higher costs than containing it.
Increased Pressure on Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is simultaneously facing threats in two vital maritime routes; on one hand, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and on the other hand, Ansar Allah in Bab al-Mandab. The compounded pressure resulting from disruptions in the oil transfer route from the Red Sea has added to Riyadh's security challenges. Therefore, the issue is not limited to a manageable and contained attack but gradually restricts Saudi Arabia's strategic options.
The trilateral agreement in Mecca among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan has become a serious test as an effort to increase Riyadh's security capacity and reduce dependence on Washington. Saudi Arabia must be able to establish an independent regional security mechanism and rely on it when its vital interests are threatened.
The U.S. approach indicates to Saudi Arabia that moving towards greater security independence will not be without cost. Excessive pressure could have the opposite effect and push Saudi Arabia towards greater independence. In this situation, the consolidation of Ansar Allah's influence around Bab al-Mandab could provide Iran with an important leverage in the field of trade and energy.
If Ansar Allah can transform its influence into a stable political and negotiating position, this could go beyond changing the balance of power in Yemen and turn the security of the Red Sea into a multilateral and regional issue. In this regard, the Mecca agreement will experience its first serious test, and Bab al-Mandab will become a testing ground for U.S.-Saudi relations.
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