Vladimir Putin, despite the heavy costs of the Ukraine war, continues to refuse to retreat. According to a new report, Russia has still not achieved significant accomplishments in this regard after more than four and a half years of war.
Heavy Costs and No Change in Calculations
Reports indicate that the outlook for the end of the war in the short and medium term is not very promising, and the trend of developments is moving towards intensifying conflict. The main reason for Putin's stubborn position is the political structure he has built over the past 25 years. The Kremlin, by increasing control over the government, media, and economy, has effectively limited the space for political competition.
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Since the onset of the war, independent media and opponents have faced increased pressure and restrictions. These limitations have left Russian society without effective tools to influence Kremlin decisions. Therefore, economic and military costs alone are not sufficient to change Putin's calculations.
Militarization and Dependency on China
As the war intensifies, Russia has moved towards extensive militarization of the state and society, dedicating a significant portion of its economic and industrial capacity to the war. Despite Western sanctions and reduced trade relations with Europe and the United States, Russia has managed to adapt its economy to wartime conditions and continues to produce missiles and drones and supply manpower to sustain the war.
This comes as the war has also revealed Russia's weaknesses. Moscow's influence in regions such as Syria, Venezuela, Central Asia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Armenia has diminished, and Russia's dependency on China has increased. These limitations have also manifested in Ukraine, where Russia still has a long way to go to achieve dominance over the entire country.
Although Moscow may be able to inflict heavy damage on Ukraine or impose a ceasefire on its own terms, the complete occupation of this country is unattainable for Russia, and Ukraine, remaining outside Moscow's control, will continue to be a long-term strategic challenge for the Kremlin.
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