Ukraine is under fire from Putin's artillery. The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a phase of attrition today more than ever, and in this context, Moscow has increased attacks on urban areas, homes, and consequently civilians ahead of the cold season. Nearly 1,700 days have passed since the start of the war against Ukraine, and yet the war that was supposed to end in a few weeks has gone nowhere, bringing despair to both sides.
Putin's Conditions for Peace
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, prefers to impose peace on Ukraine by leveraging the good relationship and positive atmosphere between himself and Donald Trump, the President of the United States. Putin has conditions under which what he calls the fundamental roots of the war will become meaningless, and the two countries can ultimately cease hostilities. Putin's most important demand from Volodymyr Zelensky is to surrender Donbas to Russia; however, even the friendship between Trump and Putin has not been able to fulfill this demand to date.
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Recently, Putin and Trump had a phone call that Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin aide, described as constructive, stating that Trump believes ending the war would open up significant prospects for the complete restoration of relations between Washington and Moscow. Observers believe that amid these friendly phone calls, Kyiv's interests are completely overlooked.
Tensions and Threats
NATO and Europe are now facing serious challenges. Although Trump is trying to consider Russian interests as much as possible, NATO member European countries do not see a victory for Putin as aligned with their interests. The Kremlin is pursuing this through a hybrid warfare campaign, military power maneuvers, and threats of attacks on countries providing military support and technology transfer to Ukraine. This is extremely infuriating for Europeans, and the rising tensions between Russia and Germany and Poland have heightened fears of Moscow in Europe.
On Friday, September 11, Vladimir Putin warned that any deployment of European forces in Ukraine would be considered a war against Russia. He addressed European leaders, saying, "Right now, they say they are considering how to send forces to Ukrainian territory. This means war against Russia." He added that European countries are scaring their people with a fictional threat from Russia, which does not exist.
In fact, analysts believe that the Russian government, which is in a militarily unfavorable position, is facing increasing economic pressure and domestic public opinion to end the war. However, Putin apparently believes that a final and extensive pressure could break Ukraine's will to resist.
The ground reality is that the people of Ukraine are facing a hellish winter. Russia, unable to achieve its objectives on the battlefield, has intensified organized and daily attacks against civilians, homes, schools, hospitals, and critical infrastructure. These attacks have led to a significant increase in civilian casualties and exacerbated shortages of food and other essential items.
Ukrainians are worried that as winter and freezing temperatures approach, Russia will once again attempt to target Ukraine's water resources and power grid. Critics of Putin say he does not shy away from such attacks that could endanger the lives of a large group of civilians to avoid showing that the war with Kyiv is somehow at a stalemate.
The indecision and unreliability of the United States regarding the Ukraine crisis have turned the issue into an apparently endless war. According to a recent poll, about 60% of the Ukrainian people oppose ceding Donbas territories to Russia, but nearly the same percentage support establishing a ceasefire and stabilizing current lines if security guarantees are provided by the West.
However, public fear in the West is that Russia's war against Ukraine, even with the current attrition and crises it has created for Moscow, will turn into an endless conflict.
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