JD Vance, the U.S. Vice President, stated in an exclusive interview with the New York Post that the war between Iran and the U.S. may enter a completely different phase next month. He added that this change could coincide with Donald Trump's assessment of the likelihood of ending the war immediately after the U.S. midterm elections.
Current Status of the War
Vance continued, "The future cannot be predicted with certainty, but Trump, as Commander-in-Chief, decides when to start and end the conflict." He emphasized that the U.S. is not currently conducting offensive operations. In contrast, Vance pointed to Iran's sporadic attacks on commercial ships in the region, stating that these attacks are usually unsuccessful.
Strait of Hormuz and Ship Traffic
Trump's deputy also claimed that ship traffic in this vital waterway has returned to "over 50 percent of normal levels." However, the New York Post reported that traffic remains significantly lower than pre-war levels. Before the conflict began, an average of about 130 commercial ships passed through this route daily, while only 11 ships were recorded in the 24 hours leading up to the interview. About 20 percent of the world's oil transported by sea passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Two Phases of War
Vance described the war as having two phases, stating that the first phase has ended. According to him, the goal of the first phase was to destroy Iran's nuclear program, weaken its conventional military capability, and reduce Tehran's ability to project power in the region. He added that the second phase involves preventing Iran from rebuilding these capabilities and striving to maintain global stability after the war.
Additionally, Vance referred to his role in shaping an understanding between Iran and the U.S. in June, which led to a ceasefire and the beginning of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. However, it remains unclear whether the Trump administration will pursue a path of escalating attacks or continue negotiations after the midterm elections. Trump had previously stated that the war could "end immediately after the elections" and that oil prices would also decrease after the elections.
